Josh Allen is the new NFL MVP favorite, but we’ve been down this exact road before

The Buffalo Bills unleashed a beatdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars so bad Monday night that one sportsbook made Josh Allen the favorite to win MVP before the game was even over.

The final score said 47-10, but even that wasn’t a proper representation of how lopsided the game felt in real time. It was hard to watch, and it made clear to anyone still on the fence about Buffalo’s window for contending after an underwhelming offseason, it’s still wide open. And Allen is the reason why.

Firmly in his prime, the 28-year-old completed 23-of-30 passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns in the win, jumping to the top of the NFL with a 92.6 QBR after three weeks. At BetMGM, he went from +400 odds entering the game to +225 before it was even over to +200 today. Those odds are down from +800 before the season and replace Patrick Mahomes as the consensus favorite.

The movement is deserved. Allen has been that good. Nobody else is having a better season. And the Bills are undefeated.

Whether he remains there is another question, though. And there is one reason to hesitate when betting on Allen to win: we’ve been down this road before. Almost exactly the same time of year last season.

Though Buffalo wasn’t undefeated in 2023 after a stunning season-opening loss to the New York Jets on the night Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles, the Bills rattled off three straight wins after that to get to 3-1. The last of those wins was a peak Allen performance. He went for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-20 blowout over the Miami Dolphins — sound familiar? — to move past Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa as MVP favorite.

Then, funny enough, the Bills lost to Jacksonville of all teams to start a 3-5 stretch that landed Sean McDermott on the hot seat and required more Allen heroics for Buffalo to turn things around for a late playoff push.

Allen, of course, was part of the problem too. He threw nine interceptions and lost two fumbles in that eight-game stretch. The always-lurking Mr. Hyde to his Dr. Jekyll reared its head, as it had in the past. It remains the reason some find it hard to trust Allen today.

Something about this year does feel different, though. Allen hasn’t thrown an interception yet, and his only turnover was a fumble on the opening drive of the season. His seven touchdown passes are second most in the NFL, and he has another two on the ground. He’s also second in completion percentage at 75%, and he’s only been sacked twice. Allen seems more composed.

Time will tell if that lasts. The teams Buffalo beat have a combined 2-7 record. A game this week as road underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson could be tougher. Then, the Bills play the Texans. Then, the Jets.

There’s no question Allen is the MVP front-runner today. Whether he stays there is completely up to him.