Sean McDermott’s endgame decisions weren’t a mistake in Bills’ loss to Texans

We may not be enjoy the result, but a deeper dive may reveal a better understanding into McDermott’s end-of-game decision

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The Buffalo Bills lost a heartbreaker to the Houston Texans on a last-second field goal. A field goal that the Bills may have had the control to prevent.

Once again, the decision making of head coach Sean McDermott is under the microscope with many expressing distaste with the decision to pass three times on the Buffalo’s final drive. As a refresher, the game was tied with 32 second left on the clock in regulation. The Bills had the ball backed up on their own three-yard line with no timeouts. Houston had all three of theirs.
On the surface, this seems like a mistake, but I’m here to convince you otherwise.

What is a mistake?

Before I really get going, I want to clarify things a bit. If you wanted three runs to force Houston to burn their timeouts and try to force overtime I don’t pretend to believe you’re wrong for wanting that. Did you want one attempt to move the ball and go from there? I understand that too.

The purpose here isn’t to say “you’re wrong” or “I’m right.” Let’s take a step back and look at another decision to get at what I mean. Let’s pretend I’m about to flip a coin. You need to make a decision on what side will land facing up. You cry out “TAILS NEVER FAILS!” I let the coin fly.

It lands on heads.

Was your decision a “mistake?” Only in the context of the result. Given that your decision was made before the result though, your “mistake” is understandable.
My point below isn’t that you’re wrong. Only that we might have different preferences. While we may disagree on the decision, let me assure you that we’re all disappointed in the result.

 

Sean McDermott screwed up the end of the game coaching decisions again

The context of the decision

Now that I’ve tried to insulate myself a bit from the wrath of the comments, let’s get into why this particular decision is better labeled as a difference in preference rather than right/wrong.

Three run calls

Calling three runs almost certainly forces Houston to burn their timeouts. There is a slim chance Buffalo breaks free for a big gain to continue the drive. The runs likely gain a few yards. All other results equal, gaining a few yards does decrease the odds of Ka’imi Fairbairn making the kick. It’s not very likely that Houston is pushed back far enough to prevent the attempt though. Running eliminates most of the risk associated with having Josh Allen dropping back and messing around in the end zone. Running the ball provides a relatively stable set of possible outcomes.

One shot and see what happens

Rather than go one way or the other completely, I’ve seen this idea tossed about and again I don’t disagree with it. This strategy assumes a little more risk than three run calls by asking for one drop back. It does allow an increase in odds of success as well, if that first play goes well. This play likely leads to some yardage gained, though probably less than the first plan. It’s also notable that in the event of a failure on the first play, Houston retains a time out, which did come into play in the actual result. This plan introduces a little bit of volatility.

Three pass plays

Let’s go back to the idea that pushing the Texans back even a few yards does help them. Take a moment to think about the decision being made before the result. Five yards gained and all else equal results in a 64-yard attempt. That’s three yards further than Fairbairn’s personal record. It’s only two yards shy of the league record. Odds of success fall off a cliff as you near the limit of human capability. Mid-60s is currently approaching the limit of human capability in the NFL. Those five yards matter.

With three chances with the ball in his hand, do you think Josh Allen can find five yards? That’s a bet I know I take pretty much every time. A gain of five yards is likely to result in what I saw many fans calling for: overtime. A single completed pass out of three chances likely gives this result.

Now passing does increase volatility the most. It’s three chances for an end zone catastrophe or interception. It’s also three chances to have a play like we saw from Keon Coleman earlier in the game. Three passes gives you a shot. Misses retain time, which helps Buffalo, because the next play shouldn’t be a miss (even though we know now that all three were).

Not a mistake

In our coin-flip scenario, I’ll point out that coin flips are not exactly 50/50 odds. Despite that, “tails never fails” is not a bad strategy and not something I’d label a mistake. The odds are close enough to make either decision fine.

As noted, the three passes introduce some volatility to the situation. But how much? Even with Josh Allen’s abysmal stats in the game, his yards per attempt were at 4.37 — meaning one completion still likely gets them what they need. With a 30% completion rate, even with a garbage rate three attempts should have gotten it done.

I could keep going on with hypotheticals. For instance, I would argue that even running the ball three times gives Houston the ball back with similar time. With no timeouts maybe they draw up another play rather than the center-field play they did and gain the yards anyway. It’s not like the Bills allowed a huge busted play to the Texans. They gave up a small chunk play. It’s also not unthinkable that Fairbairn sets a new personal record. His kick looked like it would have been good from a few more yards out.

I do think three runs gives you a better shot at forcing overtime, just not drastically so. I also think three passes increases your chance of making something happen. We’ve lost to 13 seconds. We’ve won with 23 seconds. Sean McDermott trusted his players and I like the decision, even if I don’t like the result.