3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Jaguars in Week 3

The Buffalo Bills are hoping to add one to the win column in Week 3 on Monday night when they will host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The two teams have gotten off to polar opposite starts in 2024, with the Bills going into the game 2-0 and the Jaguars sitting at 0-2. On paper and according to bookmakers, the Bills have the advantage at home in this one, but there are a few things they need to execute to come away with the win and stay hot to start the year. Here are three keys to the Bills leaving Monday night with a win:

Get after Trevor Lawrence

The Jaguars’ offensive line has looked rough to start the year. Through two weeks, they have given up six sacks, which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. In PFF’s offensive line rankings ahead of Week 3, the Jaguars rank 30th in the league. Right tackle Anton Harrison is struggling to start the year, allowing pressure on over 10% of dropbacks. The Jaguars have some good pieces on their O-line, including former Buffalo Bills center Mitch Morse, but they have glaring holes in which the Bills can attack. Conversely to the Jaguars struggling on the offensive line, the Bills’ defensive line looks like a top-ten unit in the league thus far. If Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson wants Trevor Lawrence to drop back in the pocket often on Monday night, they should run into issues.

Take advantage of Jaguars’ man defense

The Jaguars have seemingly shown their hand on defense over the first two weeks. Unless they’re planning to completely shock the Bills’ offensive coaching staff, the Bills should have a good idea of what to expect. Through two weeks, the Jaguars play man-to-man coverage at the highest rate in the league (56.6%) and play zone coverage at the lowest rate in the league (39.9%), according to PFF. If this trend continues, it should help the Bills’ passing game get going. Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen ranks first in the NFL in passing grade against man coverage.

Offensive weapons like Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel should have chances to win on their routes, and rookie Keon Coleman may have opportunities downfield one-on-one against smaller defenders.

Play a clean game

The last two Bills-Jaguars matchups have not gone in the Bills’ favor, and it had a lot to do with the Bills playing a sloppy brand of football. In the 2021 loss (6-9), the Bills committed three turnovers and 12 penalties, and in the 2023 loss (20-25) they committed two turnovers and 11 penalties. The Bills are currently a better team than the Jaguars, but a few mistakes could change things quickly. So far this year the Bills have done a good job taking care of the ball. They have just one turnover while forcing four turnovers from the opposition (+3). On the other hand, the Jaguars have yet to enter the win column despite being in close games because they have yet to cause a turnover this year. The Bills continuing to play good, clean football could go a long way Monday night.